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Markets in 2014
06:49 PM, Thursday (January 16, 2014)
 
Do you know what NIFTY can do once it breaks past 6350 ?
 
It has formed a Cup & handle pattern in 3 yrs chart ! with bottom @ 4590 & Previous top being @ 6350.. once it breaks above this we are heading straight to 8200! Immediate bottoms could be 6350-5487-5250! 
 
Why is this happening ?
 
Well markets are only getting themselves prepared for the BEST OF INDIA ! 
We all are witness to every day future political analysis & the prospects of a 
Sound & Vibrant leadership emerging from BJP camp plus Nationwide ground swelling support to NAMO! nothing can stop INDIA from becoming a GREAT ECONOMY!
 
FII's will have no option but to Invest in INDIA once the results confirm Free & Fair 
Government next May, but markets will not wait till that time ! by the time 5 states assembly elections are over we will be around 6900-7200, this may look too much but the fact is, this assessment is just political if you look @ ECONOMY's fundamentals & Currency factors we are just round the corner with all the bad news factored in 
 
Once, the real effects are seen on the ground in ECONOMY you will see INDIAN RUPEE gaining strength, when the RUPEE GAINS what follows naturally is Re-rating of INDIAN Markets to latest Price of the Rupee! say 54 to 45 range
 
If @ 6300 NIFTY Indian currency is valued @ 61.50 & the markets command a PE of 15.5-17 what should happen when the Rupee appreciates anywhere between 15-25% ! PE will go down by 25-30%! ie,.. 11-12 will be PE for INDIAN markets ! which is always the bottom, besides this you have to consider the ECONOMY Growth prospects.
 
If you were to presume on a very conservative estimate ECONOMY will grow by 25-30% from Current levels of 5%, our ECONOMIC Growth will be 6.5-7% which needs to be discounted by the markets ! 
 
Most Importantly, US will sooner or later Default in next 12-18 months!
 
Well, How long you think they can run their show by increasing their borrowings
(there is a school of thought which argues they have been doing it for ages & it will continue!) but the fact of the matter ALL GOOD THINGS HAVE TO END & PRECISELY THIS IS WHAT IS GONNA HAPPEN! AMERICA IF THEY HAVE TO STAY WILL HAVE TO STOP THIS NON-SENSE BORROWINGS! when they do it sooner or later indeed there will be some difficulty in AMERICAN & European Mkts (except CHINA & INDIA most of the Emerging markets will suffer because of their fragile & dependent economy)
 
But then, it is the only way to come out of DEBTS & start rebuilding ! under these circumstances INDIA & CHINA will be heavily favored by Investors because of the HUGE DOMESTIC MARKETS & SELF RELIANT ECONOMY! in addition to it when US & Europe suffer the demand for Oil will go down thus leading to sharp correction in OIL Prices which is a Great News for INDIA !
 
With all this, Markets have positioned themselves to EXPLODE ! if you do not buy this markets now you will buy them only in the middle of the 3rd wave of this NEW BULL RUN! 
 
If Indeed we were to see this Bull run Happening post breaking ALL TIME HIGHS
 
Wave 1 will be approximately 1750-1800 points (Difference b/w bottom of the C & H of the C) from 6350 = 8200
 
Wave 2 = -900 (50%) from 8200 = 7300 or 
= - 1112 (61.8%) from 8200 = 7088 or 
= - 1404 (78%) from 8200 = 6796
(even assuming markets will give up all the gains of 1800 NIFTY points still we will be in a NEW BULL MARKETS as Markets would not have broken below previous Bull Top 6350! - this scenario is unlikely)
 
Wave 3 = 7300+(1.62*W1) = 2916 = 10116 or
= 7088+2916= 10004 or
= 6796 + 2916 = 9712
 
Wave 4 being corrective will be 
 
= 10116-1458 = 8658 or 
= 10004 - 1802 = 8202 or
= 9712 - 2275 = 7437 
 
In the event if markets retrace 100% of all the gains it makes in Wave 1 then also we will be @ 6350!
Wave 3 = 7300+(1.62*W1) = 2916 = 10116 or
= 7088+2916= 10004 or
= 6796 + 2916 = 9712
 
Wave 4 being corrective will be 
 
= 10116-1458 = 8658 or 
= 10004 - 1802 = 8202 or
= 9712 - 2275 = 7437 
 
In the event if markets retrace 100% of all the gains it makes in Wave 1 then also we will be @ 6350! 
 
For your better understanding, pls go back to HISTORY of NIFTY corrections which have taken place between 2009 May on wards till date, you will find NIFTY never closed below 4300! 
 
Do you know why this 4300 figure is so very important ??
 
Just check the price of NIFTY on the day of 2009 Election results
 
It shot up 633 points from May 11th price of 3780 to 4330! 
 
and in the last 5 years we have never traded below 4300! this is called BULL MARKETS
 
Wave 5 = 9712+2916 = 12628 ! (Oufff OMG)
 
This is what you will see by 2016-2017 ! 
 
Believe me you will see it for sure as I have always been right in predicting the next big thing in the markets with God's blessings as well as my Knowledge!
 
(infact all my clients as well as MOTILAL OSWAL Clients know I predicted mkts going up 700 points no matter what the results are! & indeed mkts did the same!)
 
With the above Illustration all I meant to say was BULL Mkts never test Wave 1 bottoms !
 
As such I am strongly of the Opinion we will never breach 6350 again if we are to be in a REAL NEW BULL MARKETS! 
 
This means, if you BUY NIFTY BEES now @ 6350 you are Buying just at the Beginning of a NEW BULL MARKET!
 
I strongly advice all Investors to GO for INVESTING NOW without worrying about If's N But's 
 
Fortunately, GOD HAS NOT FAILED ME TO READ THE MARKETS CORRECTLY FOR THE LAST 15 YEARS ! I HAVE ALWAYS BEEN THERE MUCH BEFORE ANY BODY COULD HAVE SAID ABOUT 4500 POINTS NIFTY CUT IN 2008, FALL DURING VAJAPAYEE GOVT LOST VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN MAY 2004!
 
Thus, I once again Encourage all the Investors to have FAITH in Our Country's Economy as well as NEW,VIBRANT & HONEST LEADERSHIP of NAMO to USHER AN ERA OF GREAT ACHIEVEMENTS AS WELL AS GREAT PROSPERITY 
 
WISHING YOU ALL A HAPPY  MAKARA SHANKRANTI  
 
Pls take a look at the Charts
Posted in Technical View


WHY WE DID NOT RECOMMEND BUY ON MOST OF THE STOCKS IN LAST SEVERAL MONTHS
11:30 PM, Saturday (August 24, 2013)
 

Most of our subscribers & visitors to our site had this one question

Why we have not Initiated BUY RECOMMENDATIONS in the last 6-8 Months ?

Answer is Simple, We knew pretty well Markets are ignoring signs of Economic slow down & its effect on Investment Environment

and it can not go on ignoring for ever, also the fact every stock regardless of large or small is in for a correction big time

as also INDEX, thus we remained true to our committment to provide only TRUE & HONEST ADVICE

thus saving all our clientle as well as patrons from falling prey to EXOTIC BUY RECOMMENDATIONS BY BIG BROKERS & ANALYST FRATERNITY !

Out of nearly 2000 stocks listed in NSE & approximately 7500 stocks listed in BSE close to 50% of the stocks have gone down 50%

in their valuation in the past one year alone & 25% of the stocks have gone down 50-75% and roughly about 400 stocks in NSE & 1500 stocks in BSE have lost any where between 75-100% of their value 

We take pride in our approach not to mislead the Investors for the sake of Money 

We are truely committed to delivering HONEST & TRUE ADVICES 

Here goes the list of stocks whose valuations have eroded almost 100% !!

This is only a sample list of 125 stocks !

Name  3 Year High Price  2013 Low Loss in %
ANJANEYA LIFE CARE 855.6 35 99.65
GLODYNE 784.44 6.3 99.2
KOUTONS 346.2 2.95 99.15
BILPOWER 129.95 1.7 98.69
A2ZMES 500 7.95 98.41
SURYAPHARM 35.68 35.68 98.32
RAJOIL 64.6 1.2 98.14
GEODESIC 142.75 3.2 97.76
KEMROCK 742.8 17.15 97.69
ACROPETAL 156 3.65 97.66
GTL 462 11.2 97.58
ANKURDRUGS 174.95 4.35 97.51
CREWBOS 206.05 5.25 97.45
MICROTECH 114.75 2.95 97.43
ARSHIYA 362.9 9.95 97.26
SKUMARSYNF 97.3 2.7 97.23
EDUCOMP 702 20.35 97.1
EVERONN 756 22.55 97.02
ZYLOG 349.98 10.65 96.96
MOSERBAER 74.8 2.3 96.93
BARTRONICS 146.4 4.9 96.65
SUDAR 184.8 6.4 96.54
BRANDHOUSE 42.9 1.65 96.15
UBENGG 239.7 10.5 95.62
MADHUCON 169.5 7.6 95.52
HINDDORROL 159.4 7.55 95.26
TULSI 97.7 4.65 95.24
ASIANELEC 45.65 2.2 95.18
GLORY 20.3 1 95.07
PRIMESECU 47 2.45 94.79
UBHOLDINGS 345.5 18.75 94.57
COREEDUTEC 350 19 94.57
TECPRO 453.8 25.45 94.39
IVRCLINFRA 184.5 10.6 94.25
GOENKA 288.45 16.75 94.19
CEBBCO 142.55 8.3 94.18
PATELENG 437.5 26.7 93.9
ADVANTA 1249.9 78.3 93.74
HANUNG 414.3 27 93.5
Posted in Technical View, Bulls Orbit Vs Big Boys


How Rich Was Jesse Livermore?
05:47 PM, Friday (August 23, 2013)
 

 

How Rich Was Jesse Livermore?

At the peak of his career in 1929 Jesse Livermore was worth at least $100 million.

People sometimes ask how much that's worth in today's money. As a rule of thumb, a dollar in 1929 was worth 10 to 100 times what it's worth today - and Jesse’s fortune would have amounted to between 1.1 and 14.0 billion dollars in today’s money - a remarkable feat for a self-made stock and commodities trader who traded with his own money, not other people's.

To assess Jesse’s fortune more scientifically, the measuringworthcalculator gave the following results for today's value of $100 million in 1929:

$1.27 billion using the Consumer Price Index
$1.02 billion using the GDP deflator
$2.27 billion using the value of consumer bundle
$3.89 billion using the unskilled wage
$5.51 billion using the nominal GDP per capita
$14 billion using the relative share of GDP

Imagine what $ 14 billion would have meant at that time !!

All figures arrived using US economic data & networth calculators

Posted in Technical View, Bulls Orbit Vs Big Boys, Jssie Livermore


Facts about Jessie Livermore
04:42 PM, Thursday (July 12, 2012)
 

 

Jesse Livermore

What's so interesting 
About Jesse Livermore?

Time Magazine described Jesse Livermore as the most fabulous living U.S. stock trader.

His progress from office boy to Wall Street legend - his trading lessons - his triumphs and disasters - is probably the most fascinating of any of Wall Street's stories.

Even today, many stock and commodity traders owe Jesse Livermore a deep debt of gratitude for sharing his experiences in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

The techniques he made public have endured through many decades; his trading rules earned him millions of dollars, provided he stayed faithful to them.

Livermore also lost his entire fortune on more than one occasion, when he ignored his trading rules.

Jesse Livermore was a self-made man trading with his own money - not other people's money, like modern investment banks and hedge funds. Depending how you measure it, his fortune peaked between 1.1 and 14.0 billion dollars in today’s money.


Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - Stock Trading Strategy

In a series of interviews with "Lawrence Livingstone" (a pseudonym for Jesse Livermore) the financial journalist Edwin Lefèvre got to the heart of the strategy and psychology of a master stock market trader. Lefèvre published his interviews in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Interviews with Livermore were highly prized because, as far as his market activities were concerned, Livermore was a secretive loner.

The purpose of this site is to discuss and analyze Livermore's experiences and strategies in order to provide useful information for today's novice traders.

To give you a brief taste of where we will go, here are some comments from Jesse Livermore himself:

"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."

"...the fruits of your success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions."

"There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again."

"There are times when money can be made investing and speculating in stocks, but money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year. Only the foolhardy will try it. It just is not in the cards and cannot be done."

"The point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top price, but to buy or sell at the right time."

"I am tired of hearing the public and papers blame Wall Street for parting fools from their money... It's the successful business man who is the biggest sucker of the lot. He has made a fortune in his own line. How? By being on the job for years; by learning all there was to know about it; by taking reasonable chances; by utilizing his knowledge and experience to anticipate probabilities. He wants to increase that fortune at a faster rate and with less effort."

"It took me five years to learn to play the game intelligently enough to make big money when I was right."

"When some of my stock trading operations are given, you will notice I made my first trade... when the force of movement was so strong that it simply had to carry through."

"Speculation is far too exciting. Most people who speculate hound the brokerage offices... the ticker is always on their minds. They are so engrossed with the minor ups and downs, they miss the big movements."

Posted in Technical View, Bulls Orbit Vs Big Boys, Jssie Livermore, Jssie Livermore


How Jessie Livermore made money
04:41 PM, Thursday (July 12, 2012)
 


Who was Jesse Livermore (1877 - 1940) ?



Jesse Livermore profile Time Magazine described Jesse Livermore as the most fabulous living U.S. stock trader. 

His progress from office boy to Wall Street legend - his trading lessons - his triumphs and disasters - is probably the most fascinating of any of Wall Street's stories.  Even today, many stock and commodity traders owe Jesse Livermore a deep debt of gratitude for sharing his experiences in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. 

The techniques he made public have endured through many decades; his trading rules earned him millions of dollars, provided he stayed faithful to them. 


Livermore response to those that desire success in the markets was as follows:



Jesse Livermore quote

Note: This extract was published with the permission of Windsor Books, it can not be freely distributed.

Jesse Livermore used both fundamentals and technicals to profit in the markets. Livermore realised that he would have to learn his profession just as a doctor or engineer might.

Jesse Livermore is known to accumulate a fortune in the 1929/32 stock market crash. A reported $100 million dollars (in 1930's, this is huge). He did this by entering a trade when the market approached a critical determination point during the price trend, what he called a pivot point. At this point the trend would either re affirm it self as healthy (and continue) or not, thus a critical point in time in any trend. We at readtheticker.com use a method called Wyckoff 2.0 to determine Jesse Livermore pivot points. Read more through this site to learn more. 

Here is a chart highlighting critical pivot points during the crash of 1929-32, or how Jesse Livermore made bank. Sure fancy charts and tools he did not have, but we think in modern day times these are the pivot points Jesse Livermore would seek to profit from. 
 

Livermore pivot points


You can see the Dow Jones Industrials was in a very strong Wyckoff 2.0 'mark down' phase between Oct 1929 and July 1932, an investor need only apply readtheticker.com Hurst Cycle and Gann Angles to expose the true trend 'pivot points' to exploit for profit. Become a member and research the current market for Jesse Livermore 'pivot points' for profit. Gann, Hurst and Wyckoff tools have worked for decades. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Posted in Technical View, Bulls Orbit Vs Big Boys, Jssie Livermore, Jssie Livermore, Jssie Livermore


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